New Coface Political Risk Index in 159 countries
Adding to its current political risk indices for Western Europe and emerging countries, global trade credit insurer Coface today launched a global index spanning 159 countries. The index measures two major categories – the security risks of conflict and terrorism, and a country’s political and social risks – for a comprehensive assessment political risk.
In developing the index with current and historical data, Coface notes that:
- The index has been rising since 2013
- The risk of conflicts doubled between 2007 and 2015
- Conflicts are becoming more international due to terrorist risk
- The rise of populism is having an impact in advance economies
The score for the Middle East and North Africa is high. Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and Nigeria are at 100%. Risk has also increased since 2010, with Lebanon up +22 points and Egypt up +20 points. In Sub-Saharan Africa, political risk has been on the rise since 2013, with +36 points in Nigeria, and +28 points in Central African Republic. Côte d’Ivoire showed a slight improvement, with a score that dropped -6 points.
The countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States are also significantly above average. The heightened risk in Russia (+2 points) and Ukraine (+41 points) is not the only factor. Political risk levels have also increased in Tajikistan by +10 points and Azerbaijan by +8 points.
Latin America, where social fragility is rising, is on an upward slope with Mexico up +25 points and Venezuela up +9 points.
Trends are mixed in Asia. China is up +10 points and India is stable, but the situation has been gradually improving in Sri Lanka (-60 points) and Nepal (-25 points) since 2010.
Three Inputs of the Index Confirm that Political Risk is Spreading
- Conflict index
The conflict index is based on the occurrence of conflicts, their intensity, and the types of players involved. The countries in a state of war are at the top of the ranking: Afghanistan, Iraq, Sudan, Nigeria and Syria. Mexico, because of the cartels, Colombia, Algeria, and India also stand out with a high level of risk.
- Terrorist risk
Security risk cannot be measured without taking terrorism into account. This indicator has increased 2.8-fold since 2008 and is likely to affect the confidence of businesses, households, and foreign investors. Most of the OECD countries that are engaged in combating the so-called Islamic State have seen their score increase between 2011 and 2015. France has the highest score among developed countries at 77% (+24 points.) This risk is also on the rise in the USA (+23 points), Australia (+27 points), and Germany (+27 points.)
- Political and social fragility index
The political and social fragility index takes into account, on the one hand, the nature of the political regime, ethnic and linguistic fragmentation, and political and civil liberties, and on the other, the pressures and instruments of social risk. Here again, the countries where conflicts are intense show the highest risk levels. Between 2007 and 2015, the rise was particularly strong in the CIS and Latin America.
Developed countries FACE the populist wave
To assess rising populism in developed countries, Coface has incorporated data from the "Manifesto" project, which surveys the proportion of political manifestos allocated to an electoral theme (protectionism, security, public order, national values, etc). The Coface analysis found that the pressure of populism has reached the highest level in the United Kingdom (score of 73%) and France (70%), followed by Austria (64%) and the Netherlands (63%), where a significant share of the score is derived from a distrust of multiculturalism.
Infographics : New political risk index for 159 countries
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